October 31, 2005
George and Google
George Colony, the founder of Forrester Research, has built a reputation for gut calls on technology markets. No IDC-style gigabyte-sized, hundred-column spreadsheets for him, no sir. Instead, he looks at markets, companies, and technologies, let’s it all percolate inside him (I’m hypothesizing here), and then makes a gut call.
Like the one he made a year ago when he said Google would fade. Search’s lack of stickiness, he said, along with “crushing” competition from Microsoft and Yahoo!, plus a changing Internet, would collectively do the company in.
Well as George concedes in a piece today, he was wrong. Google not only failed to not thrive, it has exploded, run rampant, and grown like topsy.
Letting multi-billion dollar bygones be bygones, where does Google go from here, according to George? Here’s where:
So here's Google's playbook: 1) have the best search; 2) have more of the world to search than anyone else through the digitization of university libraries, earth images, maps, etc.; 3) attract the most advertising and syndication; enabling the company to 4) give all of its software away for free; which enables it to 5) change the rules and economics of the software business and define the future through its pioneering work in X Internet.
Fine, I don’t disagree, but I still want to know what changed in the last twelve months. All of these things were evident a year ago, back when Colony thought Google would flounder. It didn’t. Rather than repeating common wisdom on why Google will now succeed, it might be more helpful if Colony told us why everyone else failed when he was so sure they would take Larry and Sergey down.
Posted by pk at 04:26 PM on October 31, 2005 # | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Data Storage as Not-So-Dull Industry

- Growth of the two largest storage companies (EMC and Network Appliance): 26% / Growth of the two largest computer companies (IBM and HP): 6%
- Every time a house is bought or sold, or a mortgage refinanced, title insured First American scans the available records of the event, adds them to its database -- and then it sells the info to real-estate agents, analysts and appraisers
- The San Francisco Giants stores video from six different cameras at each home game, plus the broadcast feed from away games. It also uses a bank of TiVos to record coming opponents.
- Researcher Patrick Burns at Colorado State is studying how mad-cow disease might spread among the state's two million cattle. He has detailed all 19,031 places in Colorado that cows can be found, plus all the "events" -- including slaughters, births, deaths, moves -- that might place one cow in close proximity to another. He's up to 7.7 million events.
- Ten years ago, oil survey equipment penetrated "only" 15,000 feet; modern equipment goes down 30,000 feet, with the result being a one-decade 50x increase in disk space required
obPersonalAnecdote: For no real reason other than that I think it might one day be useful, I have been logging and storing the count of every headline over the last two years on various news services. As of this morning my little applications has counted 905,020 headlines. In the absence of cheap storage I would never have even entertained the idea of doing this.
Posted by pk at 08:21 AM on October 31, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Consumer Technology & the Architectural Inversion
There is a somewhat cryptic Gartner report out arguing (I think) that enterprise technology markets increasingly take their cue from consumer tech markets. If I have parsed the precis correctly, then I'm in raging agreement -- that is exactly what is happening out there in many places. Enterprise buyers are hamstrung by a combination of prior purchases and over-rigid requirements, while consumer technology markets are in that more playful no-installed-base-case world where they can try things and discard what doesn't suit.David Margulius of InfoWorld adds his perspective:
However obvious this may be to those of us who used My Yahoo (or Excite) long before the first enterprise portal came around, Gartner has brazenly identified an interesting turnabout -- or “architectural inversion,” as analyst David Mitchell Smith calls it. Whereas IT architecture used to be internally focused, with purpose-built platforms, now IT is turning outward to absorb “Web 2.0” technologies already battle-tested with fickle consumers. Lockdown is out -- one click is in.And some new (unreleased) dashboard products for blogs are also at least as good as small/medium business financial tools.The implicit challenge to IT managers here, Gartner implies, is the forced trade-off of security and control for speed and flexibility, not to mention scalability and cost-effectiveness. How will IT react? Finger in the dike? Cautious pragmatism? Gartner’s not predicting that one.
Of course, many consumer technologies will never touch the enterprise -- TiVo, for example -- and certain enterprise technologies will land in consumerland. Some dashboards on Match.com are on par with state-of-the-art enterprise BI apps -- not that I would know!
Posted by pk at 08:10 AM on October 31, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Amazon: History isn't Bunk
While it took Amazon much longer than I expected it would to get around to doing this, it’s big news that the company has finally added DVD, book, and music historical pricing data to its web services. Yes, it’s only three years data, and yes, the price is a little high ($249/mo going to $499/mo after January 1st), but this is highly valuable data.
Posted by pk at 07:45 AM on October 31, 2005 # | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
October 30, 2005
IBM Snatches Pebble from Kan's Hand

During the dot-com boom, VC firms didn't see much value in talking to IBM, which looked to them like an old-fashioned company in those heady times. Not being part of the industry establishment came as a shock to IBM executives, admitted [IBM Vice President Claudia] Fan Munce.IBM then went to the other extreme and started casting its money about. If it wanted in on VC discussions it would have to ante-up. It did. "That helped us get to the table. But we realized quickly that it was the wrong thing to do," said Fan Munce, who declined to say how much money IBM invests or how much it wrote off when the dot.com bubble burst. "We didn't lose all the money," Fan Munce said.
Learning from those experiences at the beginning of the decade IBM has grown to become one of the most sophisticated players of the VC game, some observers claim. IBM limits itself to only four or five deals a year; it usually puts most of its money into VC funds, Fan Munce explained. [Emphasis added]
Posted by pk at 08:00 PM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
More Built-to-Flip Fun
Joshua Jaffe offers up more fuel for fans and critics of the build-to-flip view of Web 2.0:Corporations aren't just the clear choice now for venture capitalists seeking to sell their portfolio companies. The big high-tech companies are also beginning to claim venture capitalists' prime investment candidates even before they launch. Here's one example.Robot Co-Op is a Seattle-based startup responsible for 43Things.com, a Web site launched last year that allows people to share their life desires with other online users. Think of it as a personal recommendation engine for life. In June, the company applied this model to the online travel industry with the launch of 43Places.com, where users can list places they'd like to travel to or have already visited.
... This is the type of engineering experience that most venture capitalists would kill for — especially in an environment where investments in next-generation Internet technologies are the hottest venture trend. But when it came time for Robot Co-Op to raise money to launch its prototype in the market, it didn't go to the Seattle venture establishment.
Instead, the startup received an undisclosed amount of capital from Amazon.com. "They know us from our [Amazon] past, and we know them, and we're building stuff we're both excited about," Peterson says.
Posted by pk at 08:29 AM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Richard E. Smalley, 62, Dies
Rice University chemistry professor Richard Smalley, a Nobel laureate and a leader in the world of nanotechnology, died Friday of leukemia. It is a sad & early death for a brilliant and wonderfully creative man:Dr. Smalley, a short, trim man with a fringe of beard and a wry sense of humor, used his renown as a platform to evangelize for increased investment in educating a new generation of scientists and engineers. He also spoke ceaselessly to conferences and business executives about how nanotechnology with its rapidly expanding capacity to reshape materials at the molecular level could transform the economy and address both environmental and energy challenges.There is more here and you can watch one his talks here."He's like a rock star in technology circles," said Robert Gower, chief executive and co-founder with Dr. Smalley of Carbon Nanotechnologies, a company set up to commercialize Dr. Smalley's discoveries, in a 2003 interview.
Posted by pk at 08:26 AM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
Simultaneous DVD Release and the Death of Theaters

At Thursday's closing night dinner, Shyamalan assured his audience that his movies are made to be viewed in theaters. DVDs, cable and all other ancillary markets are just "souvenirs," he said, that are meant to enhance — but not replace — the theatergoing experience.In his retrograde views about innovation in the declining movie business, Shyamalan reminds me of someone trying to hold back the tide on aesthetic reasons. Good luck to him."I came here to tell you that what you do is something sacred. Nobody has benefited more from DVD sales than me. I bought my house on DVD sales from 'The Sixth Sense.' But take away my house. That's not why I do what I do."
"If I can't make movies for theaters, I don't want to make movies," Shyamalan told The Times. "I hope this is a very bad idea that goes away."
Posted by pk at 08:07 AM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)
Geezer Wars: Retirees vs. Active Octogenerians
The Internet usage issue isn't the only interesting age-related topic that caught my eye this weekend. The other is a fascinating L.A. Times piece on the class war between retirees and non-retirees. Whereas in the past retirement was seen as something to which you were to be congratulated for -- doubly so if you pulled the trick off younger -- these days there is growing group of people who could retire, but don't, and think that those who do are unmotivated layabouts.In the 1980s, retirement was seen as heaven on earth. It was also seen as a statement of status," says Ken Dychtwald, a consultant and psychologist whose guide for planning an active future, "The Power Years," was published last month. "People who retired young were seen as successful. If you met someone who was retired you'd ask, 'How old were you when you retired?' If the answer was 68 you'd think, 'That's too bad.' If it was 48, that was impressive. The model of the attractive, potent adult was a man at leisure. There's been a complete flip-flop." Now the admired adult is the person still working, at least part of the time. "It's shifted from 'I don't work. How great is that?' to 'I'm still working. How great is that?' "Rupert Murdoch, Warren Buffett, Frank Gehry, Clint Eastwood, Donald Rumsfeld and Roy Romer are all still working past age 73 and seem disinclined to stop. This fraternity of high-profile, hard-charging septuagenarians, as well as millions of lesser-known working seniors, are making life a bit more challenging for the graying flock that looked forward to spending their golden years on an endless vacation. Mention the word "retirement" to the likes of Penn State football coach Joe Paterno, 78, Viacom chairman Sumner Redstone, 82, or TV newsman Mike Wallace, 87, and the reaction ranges from aversion to fear and loathing.
Pop culture has reinforced that position by portraying retired men as annoying geezers ("Everybody Loves Raymond's" Frank Barone) or lost souls with nothing better to do than run a child's life (Warren Schmidt in "About Schmidt"). The retired, backward-glancing sad sack Bill Murray portrayed in "Broken Flowers" is no one's idea of a role model. Fun, adventure and glory was in store for the "Space Cowboys." All they had to do was go back to their former careers.
Posted by pk at 07:59 AM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Biggest Design Flaw in Windows

I'm sure many of you, like me, have right-clicked on an address bar somewhere as you intend to copy a URL, only to accidentally roll down one command too far and paste (crap!!) the current contents of the Windows clipboard into the address bar instead. It drives me crazy, and now that notice I do it really frequently I literally stop and pause now -- Select Copy. Select Copy. Select Copy. -- before doing anything. Even so, I all-too-frequently still paste passwords and clipped text into places that I meant to do a copy.
One simple partial fix that wouldn't require redesigning the Edit menu: If Windows saw that you were about to paste something into a place where it doesn't belong it could ask you if that's what you mean to do. "I see that you're about to paste words into an address bar. Press Ok if that's really what you want to do." That would help, at least a little.
Posted by pk at 07:39 AM on October 30, 2005 # | Comments (12) | TrackBack (0)
October 29, 2005
Nick Carr Jerks His Knee
In a typically knee-jerk contrarian post on his site, Nick Carr jerks his knee and takes me to task by leaping (as he predictably does) to the other side of this Forbes vs Blogs topic. The trouble is, there is no other side (at least with respect to my comments): While bloggers can be thin-skinned, I cheerfully conceded as much in my earlier post on Forbes’ silly, attention-seeking anti-blog cover article.
The real issue, Carr’s tiresome knee-jerk contrarianism aside, is that Lyons’ article in Forbes was thinly-reported agenda-driven dreck, precisely the sort of thing that Forbes alleges taints the blog-o-sphere (which, Forbes’ hyperbolic hand-wringing aside, doesn’t much care about business anyway).
Finally (I hope) on this topic, as most readers of this site will know, I'm not one of those people who prattle on and on about blogs vs. the so-called mainstream media (MSM, as it's irritatingly abreviated). Matter of fact, I really don't care about the issue of whether journalism beats blogs, vice-versa, or whether both are beat by sock puppets with pens. Blogs have a place in my reading, as do mainstream outlets -- including those heretics at Forbes -- but a trumped-up either/or false dichotomy predicated on assuming the conclusion does diddly for me.
Posted by pk at 10:19 AM on October 29, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The Geezer Gap
There is another Internet access gap and it isn’t income-related, it’s age-related. From some fascinating new Census Bureau data released this week:
And why does the “geezer gap” exist? The Census Bureau has the answer: Older demographics of people with computers in the home are less convinced that there is anything useful to them on the Internet. Therein lies an interesting opportunity for someone.
Posted by pk at 10:11 AM on October 29, 2005 # | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Assholes All the Way Down
This is allegedly writer Michael Kinsley talking about writer Bob Novak, but in my experience it’s much more widely applicable:
Beneath the asshole is a very decent guy, and beneath the very decent guy is an asshole.
This kinda “assholes all the way down” wisecrack reminds of the old story Stephen Hawkings retailed in “A Brief History of Time”:
A well-known scientist (some say it was Bertrand Russell) once gave a public lecture on astronomy. He described how the Earth orbits around the sun and how the sun, in turn, orbits around the centre of a vast collection of stars called our galaxy.
At the end of the lecture, a little old lady at the back of the room got up and said: "What you have told us is rubbish. The world is really a flat plate supported on the back of a giant tortoise."
The scientist gave a superior smile before replying, "What is the tortoise standing on?"
"You're very clever, young man, very clever," said the old lady. "But it's turtles all the way down."
Posted by pk at 07:22 AM on October 29, 2005 # | Comments (5) | TrackBack (0)
October 28, 2005
Me and Brian
To see why I looked so wide-eyed in the following Flickr photo (via KK) during my recent VEF speech just scroll down to see an un-cropped version of the photo;
Here’s why:
Posted by pk at 06:18 PM on October 28, 2005 # | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
Calit2 Building 1.0 Launches
The “living” Calit2 building — kind of a Media Lab West — at UC San Diego is having its dedication ceremony today starting at 10am in La Jolla. Festivities for the place run from 10am this morning to late in the evening. Organizers are promising surprise speakers, plus tours of nifty research ranging from nanotechnology to combinations of computer science and the arts, and then an evening event that promises to be very cool indeed:
At 8PM, the pre-show for SPECFLIC 1.0 will take place, followed by the full performance starting at 9PM. SPECFLIC, the brainchild of Visual Arts professor Adriene Jenik, is a distributed, speculative cinema project. Set in 2030, SPECFLIC's story is not just told, but experienced. Based on cutting-edge science and engineering research, SPECFLIC 1.0 performs the social costs and benefits of accelerated progress. The audience is encouraged to bring wireless devices (laptops and cell phones) to interact with the performance and to dress for Halloween in the year 2030.
Posted by pk at 07:27 AM on October 28, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
October 27, 2005
Another VC Bites the Dust
Blogger and venture guy Jeff Nolan of SAP Ventures is exiting the venture business. He makes the same comment that many newly ex-venture people do, that he misses being responsible for stuff and being able to execute in a team. Of course, exiting venture means that “a central part of [his] job will no longer include sitting around bullshitting with [his] buddies”, but that’s the way it goes.
Good luck, Jeff.
Posted by pk at 10:07 PM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
It Ain't Easy Being Tom (Peters)
Uber-consultant Tom Peters’ blog is always eclectic and entertaining reading, especially when he is on a long road trip and reflecting back what he sees, thinks, and feels. Even the usually tireless Tom, however, sometimes runs out of energy and wishes he wasn’t on a 45 day, 22 lecture lap of the Earth, as this heartfelt post makes clear:
Don't let me mislead you or inflate my successes. Sometimes none of these tactics work worth a damn. I find myself in a shitty mood all day long, growl and scowl at one and all, can't imagine my lecture making the slightest difference to anyone, am certain that I am wrong about everything, and wonder why I'm pissing away my life collecting frequent flyer miles I have no time to use. On the other hand, there are less of those days than there used to be. Including today.
Posted by pk at 09:49 PM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
Forbes Goes After the Blog-o-sphere
Forbes magazine has an over-heated cover story this week nominally telling businesses how to fight back against blogs. Fight back against blogs? The examples — l’affaire Radicati, the Kyptonite Incident — are more appropriately read as human, and, yes, sometimes clumsy and error-prone, attempts to make companies more responsive to legitimate consumer complaints.
Getting minor details wrong while getting the main story right is hardly a hanging offense. Even when bloggers do get things wrong (which happens regularly), the pig-headedness of readers in setting blogs straight is awe-inspiring. I can hardly set a foot awry here without someone noisily setting me straight within hours, unlike some magazines that must be dragged into London’s High Court before backing away from unsupported accusations. .
Forbes, however, insists on taking the most negative view possible. Writer Daniel Lyons says that the Radicati episode was all about disgruntled Notes consultants sniping at an anti-Notes report; the Kryptonite episode was about bloggers exaggerating the number of Kryptonite locks at risk of being picked with pens. After exaggerating so desperately to make this point, Lyons goes on to accuse bloggers of agenda-driven reporting. Pot. Kettle. Black.
Publisher Rich Karlgaard is smarter than this. Why did this stretched piece ever see the light of day? And at least as bad, how did it ever see print in tech-friendly Forbes with its exhortation to file libel suits against bloggers, and with its “blame Google” rhetoric? While bloggers are far from blameless, they are worlds away from the business bogeymen that this dopey Forbes cover piece makes them out to be.
C’mon Rich, you know better.
Posted by pk at 08:24 PM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (5) | TrackBack (2)
The XBRL Explosion
Granted, this is financial geek talk, but it’s still an important and largely unheralded change that looks like it’s finally set to reach critical mass:
… the Securities and Exchange Commission has issued a call to action. This month, SEC Chairman Christopher Cox urged software firms to provide — and companies to use — a new interactive format for putting financial data online.
This standard is known as extensible business reporting language. XBRL code is used to tag all kinds of data in financial reports. Such tags let analysts extract and use the data.
Much as HTML is the standard language for coding Web sites, XBRL is a standard for coding online financial data.
This technical standard differs from accounting standards. U.S. companies must base their financial results on generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. But no such rules exist on how to provide this financial data over the Web.
Now the SEC is asking companies to adopt XBRL on a voluntary basis. In his call to action on Oct. 4, Cox said XBRL tags could "dramatically enhance" the value of financial reports.
…Nine companies in the U.S. have volunteered to post their financial results in XBRL.
… Starting this month, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. requires more than 7,500 U.S. banks to submit data in XBRL.
That FDIC mandate, combined with pressure from the SEC and Wall Street, should prompt widespread use of XBRL over the next few years …
Posted by pk at 12:25 PM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)
The "Young People Don't Use Email" Canard
Like me, you’ve probably been soberly informed a quadzillion times by market researchers, analysts, and would-be pundits that young people don’t use email. They use instant messaging, we’re told, and that the Rest of Us still use email is a hallmark of how technologically dated we already are. The wave is coming.
Am I the only one who usually wants to call bullshit on that? Sure, teens use instant messaging far more than email, but how much does that have to do with their position in economic life, versus the intrinsic merits of instant messaging? My sense is that they use instant messaging as an extension of (and replacement for) endless teen-to-teen phone conversations, not as a way of managing workflow.
My guess is that many of the IM Generation will find that email, far from being anathema, will end up an awful lot like the rest of us: Email will be an important — and often irritating — part of their day.
Do any grown-up readers out there with full-time jobs (who don’t work in the brokerage industry) rely near-exclusively on IM for work-related communications? Inquiring minds want to know.
Posted by pk at 09:10 AM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)
The Boredom/Success Two-Step
I’ve said something similar here before, but Michael Dell says it better:
“There are a lot of things that go into creating success. I don't like to do just the things I like to do. I like to do things that cause the company to succeed. I don't spend a lot of time doing my favorite activities.”
[From the consistently excellent DDO]
Posted by pk at 08:56 AM on October 27, 2005 # | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)
October 26, 2005
Playing with Web 2.0 Beta Stuff
In playing with a couple of interesting Web 2.0–ish beta apps today, I got to think about how software pre-market testing nomenclature has deflated somehow. Beta is the new shipped product, alpha is the new beta, and a five-minute high-order bit is the new alpha.Posted by pk at 08:01 PM on October 26, 2005 # | Comments (0) | TrackBack (1)
PDX WiFi Rocks
I just discovered that Portland airport now has free wireless throughout the main concourse. No more sitting on my suitcase outside the Alaska Airlines lounge just to get free Wi-Fi! Oh joy, oh bliss!Posted by pk at 07:55 PM on October 26, 2005 # | Comments (2) | TrackBack (0)
My Web 2.0 Presentation from VEF
I had good fun presenting at the Vancouver Enterprise Forum event Tuesday night. My fellow presenters (see Roland’s post here) were entertaining, and I’m glad Dick yanked me into the event. In case anyone’s interested, here are the slides I used for a 15–minute thrill-ride called “Get Your Head Out of the F*ck-ing Tag Cloud”, an irreverent wander through the economics of Web 2.0.Posted by pk at 02:55 PM on October 26, 2005 # | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
October 25, 2005
Google: All Your Us Are Belong To Base
The WSJ is running a story tonight suggesting that it will be Ebay that takes on the chin from the new Google Base database service that the aforementioned search company launched and unlaunched today. While that’s possible, it strikes me that the service has far more applications than classified ads, although those are there too. Why not worry at least as much though about the effect on MySQL, or maybe on Microsoft Access?
obDigression: As some readers have pointed out, the headline I put on this piece is just too easy. Is this an AYBABTU homage for geeks everywhere, like when Google raised $2,718,281,828 a while back? Which reminds me, Cory at BoingBoing recently tipped another AYBABTU homage, that one complete with a lyric-adjusted version of Queen’s Bohemian Rhapsody. Staggeringly strange viewing.
obDigression2: All of this reminds me of a story. In Grade 12 physics our instructor, who was Greek and sometimes struggled with the language, was cajoled into letting us sing Happy Birthday at the beginning of each class if it was someone’s birthday. Being thuggish and anti-intellectual high school students, we all enjoyed that much more than learning about … whatever it is you learn in Grade 12 physics, so, we piled it on.
There would be one birthday ever class for sure, but then it went to two. After all, singing two Happy Birthdays took twice as long as singing one; and so it went, with birthday singing taking up more and more time each physics class.
And then, one day, the instructor got mad. He noticed one student had seemingly had two birthdays awfully close together and said, “Hey, it was just your birthday two weeks ago!” You see, we only had a small class, around 20 students, so it was hard not to repeat birthdays if you wanted to have multiple Happy Birthday singings every day.
Realizing that at last, the instructor began shouting: “If you don’t stop this screwing around then one day it will be all of your birthdays!!”
As you can imagine, I’ve used that wonderfully incoherent threat many times since. It can be very effective.
Posted by pk at 04:14 PM on October 25, 2005 # | Comments (3) | TrackBack (1)
October 24, 2005
Web 2.0 Talk in Vancouver on October 25
For those of you in Vancouver and environs, I’m giving a Web 2.0–ish talk (maybe more like a throat-clearing, given that I’m only allotted fifteen minutes) at a Vancouver Enterprise Forum get-together on Tuesday of this week. It’s in some golf-ball-shaped building near downtown, I’m told. Anyway, here is the title of the talk:
Get Your Head Out of the F**ing Tag Cloud
The title aside, it’s actually a cheerful and upbeat bit of musing. Really. I mean it.
Posted by pk at 11:54 PM on October 24, 2005 # | Comments (4) | TrackBack (0)